Market Demand, Price Trend and Industry Development Trend of Polyvinylpyrrolidone in China in 2022

1、 PVP Overview

1. Definition and classification

Polyvinylpyrrolidone (PVP) is a non-ionic polymer compound produced by polymerization of N-vinylpyrrolidone (NVP) under certain conditions. PVP has two different forms, liquid and solid. The most common are powder, aqueous solution and organic solution. PVP was first invented by BASF in 1938. Because it is a macromolecular polymer similar to human plasma protein in physiology, it was once used as a substitute for plasma during World War II. PVP has excellent stability, low toxicity, film-forming property and other advantages without recognition. As an auxiliary agent, additive and auxiliary material, it has a high application demand. It is a widely used fine chemical product, and has been applied in many fields such as medicine, textile, chemical, beverage, daily chemical, etc.

K value is an important factor to determine various properties of PVP. K value refers to the value calculated from the viscosity measurement value of dilute polymer solution, which is related to the degree of polymerization or molecular size. Generally speaking, the larger the K value is, the larger the molecular weight is, the greater the viscosity is, and the stronger the adhesion is. The main varieties and specifications of PVP can be divided into viscosity grades K15, K30, K60 and K90 according to molecular weight. At present, PVP can be divided into industrial grade, cosmetic grade, food grade and pharmaceutical grade. The process difficulty, technical requirements and price are increased step by step.

2. Synthetic process

The synthesis process of PVP includes acetylene method and γ- Butyrolactone method. The acetylene process is mature and the current mainstream production process. The acetylene method uses acetylene, formaldehyde, etc. as starting materials to synthesize 1,4-butanediol (BDO), and then through catalytic dehydrogenation to cyclization, ammonolysis, acetylene addition and other reactions, PVP monomer NVP is finally obtained. Acetylene method is the earliest and relatively perfect method to synthesize NVP. The main advantages of the acetylene process for NVP production are that the process is mature, raw materials are cheap and easy to get, and it is suitable for large-scale industrial production; In addition, the acetylene method has the characteristics of long process flow, large investment in fixed assets, strict operating conditions, and explosion risk of main raw material acetylene. Therefore, enterprises with certain scale, high management level, control technology, R&D strength, perfect sales network and after-sales service are required to choose this method.

γ- The yield of butyrolactone method is lower, which is more suitable for small and medium-sized enterprises. γ- Butyrolactone method refers to the method of γ- Butyrolactone reacts with ethanolamine to produce hydroxyethyl pyrrolidone (NHP), the aminolysis product, and then NHP is dehydrated directly or indirectly to produce the target monomer NVP in the presence of dehydration catalyst. γ- The direct dehydration of butyrolactone requires a high temperature (350-400 ℃) and high energy consumption. At present, there is a lack of ideal dehydration catalyst, which limits the development of this process. γ- The indirect dehydration method of butyrolactone has the following problems: toxic and irritating by-products are produced in the production process, the production process involves the absorption of harmful substances, the process becomes complex and difficult to control, and the utilization rate of equipment is generally low, and the NVP yield is lower than that of acetylene method.

2、 Development background of PVP industry

From a technical perspective, the preparation of PVP includes the synthesis of monomer NVP and the synthesis of polymer PVP. The key technologies in the synthesis of monomer NVP are monomer synthesis technology and monomer purification technology; The key technologies in the synthesis of polymer PVP are polymerization technology and drying technology.

3、 PVP industrial chain

1. Industrial chain

The upstream of PVP industry chain includes acetylene or calcium carbide γ- Butyrolactone, ammonia and other industries, PVP industry is in the middle of the industrial chain, and its downstream applications are more extensive, mainly including daily chemical industry, medicine, food and beverage, materials and new energy fields.

2. Product cost structure

From the perspective of cost structure, the price of PVP products is mainly affected by the price of raw materials. According to the annual report of Xinkaiyuan, the cost of raw materials of its PVP series products will account for more than 60% in 2021. The main raw materials are BDO, and the unit consumption is about 1.0.

3. Downstream demand structure

In terms of downstream demand, pharmaceutical industry and daily chemical industry are the main application fields of PVP products. In 2018, the pharmaceutical industry and daily chemical industry accounted for about 75% in total, of which the pharmaceutical industry accounted for 36.46%. In 2021, affected by the new energy field, the new energy field accounted for 10%, and the pharmaceutical industry accounted for 30%. The continuous expansion of PVP application field is an important factor to promote the development of PVP industry.

4、 Current situation of PVP industry

1. Market demand

From the perspective of market demand, according to the statistics of CHEMICALPROFILE: PVP, the global PVP capacity in 2013 was 76300 tons/year, and the demand for various PVPs was 67500 tons/year. It is estimated that the global demand will grow at an annual rate of 5.3% by 2018, and the global PVP demand calculated by this growth rate in 2021 will be 102000 tons.

2. PVP price

From the perspective of PVP price, the latest domestic market price of PVPK30 is about 70000 yuan/ton. At the end of 2021, the foreign PVP market quotation is about 9000 dollars/ton. According to the announcement of New Open Source, the average price of its main product PVP has not fluctuated much compared with the previous period. In the first half of 2022, the average sales price of New Open Source PVP products will be about 70000 to 80000 yuan/ton, an increase of about 45% compared with the same period of last year, which is about 50000 to 55000 yuan/ton.

3. Capacity and output of main upstream raw materials

From the perspective of BDO production capacity of main upstream raw materials, according to statistics, China's BDO production capacity will be 2.159 million tons in 2021, with an output of 1.7468 million tons. The proposed production capacity will reach 3.744 million tons in 2022-2024. It is expected that the competition in the BDO market will be fierce in the future, and the tight supply pattern is expected to continue to improve.

4. Traditional field application

From the downstream medical field, the excellent physical and chemical properties and excellent physiological compatibility of PVP play an increasingly important role in pharmaceutical excipients. PVP as a pharmaceutical excipient can play the role of tablet adhesive, solubilization, coated tablets, coprecipitation and grinding, sustained release agent, disintegrant, etc.

From the perspective of daily chemical industry, the C-N-C-O group structure and protein of PVP are similar, so it must have a good affinity with skin and hair. It can form a transparent film, bright, easy to wash with water, non irritating, non allergic, and has a good protective effect on hair and skin. PVP has good surfactant performance, can be used as emulsion stabilizer of cream and lotion, and can effectively maintain the foam stability of shampoo and bath products. Cross linked PVP has anti-inflammatory, detoxification and analgesic effects. When used in skin care products, it can relieve pain and reduce irritation, and has therapeutic effects on skin redness, erythema and hemorrhoids.

5. New application fields

PVP can be used as dispersant of lithium battery electrode and conductive material processing aid. According to the announcement of Xinkaiyuan Company, the consumption of PVP in the field of new energy battery is about 15 tons per 1GWh, mainly using industrial grade PVP K30. According to the prediction of Gaogong Lithium GGII, the global power battery shipment will reach 1550GWh in 2025, and the energy storage battery shipment will reach 476GWh. Based on the high growth rate of the new consumer electronics market and the increase in the unit capacity of traditional 3C consumer electronics, assuming that the annual average compound growth rate of global consumer electronics lithium battery shipments is 10%, the shipments will reach 183.2GWh in 2025. According to the above analysis, assuming that the consumption of PVP in the lithium battery field is about 15 tons for 1GWh, the annual demand of PVP for lithium battery will reach 11600 tons in 2022 and 33100 tons in 2025.

5、 Competition pattern of PVP industry

1. Industry concentration

In terms of industry concentration, PVP market concentration is high. Relevant data shows that BASF and Ashland are leading enterprises, and the market share of CR2 enterprises in 2019 is 64.73%. Other important participants include Boai Xinkaiyuan, Japan Catalyst and Nanhang Pharmaceutical. In 2019, the revenue share of CR5 enterprises reached 78.08%.

2. Major players in the industry

From the perspective of industry participants, the current global production capacity of PVP is about 107100 tons/year, of which the foreign production capacity is about 50100 tons/year, and the domestic production capacity is about 57000 tons/year. As leading enterprises in the global industry, BASF and Ashland have PVP capacity of about 24800 tons/year and 21000 tons/year. As a leader in the domestic PVP industry, Xinkaiyuan has a capacity of 13000 tons/year, 20000 tons/year NVP and PVP new capacity are under construction, and it is expected that the first phase of the project will be put into production with a capacity of 10000 tons/year in 2023.

6、 PVP industry barriers

PVP industry has a high threshold. There are mainly technical barriers, policy barriers, market access barriers and sales channel barriers to enter the PVP industry, which will affect the expansion of PVP capacity.

7、 Development trend of PVP industry

With the continuous development of the new energy industry, the application of PVP in the new energy industry has been gradually developed. At present, PVP can be mainly used in lithium batteries. PVP can be used as a dispersant for lithium battery electrodes and a processing aid for conductive materials. PVP can significantly improve the dispersion of carbon nanotubes in water, organic solvents and other matrices. At the same time, the study shows that the conductivity of PEO polymer electrolyte for sodium ion battery can be greatly improved by PVP modification. With the continuous development of technology, it is expected that PVP will be applied in more emerging fields in the future.